The Great Bitcoin Halving of 2024: A Deep Dive into Scarcity, Price, and the Future of Crypto

The Bitcoin blockchain just witnessed a monumental event – the halving! 

This pre-programmed occurrence, happening roughly every four years, cuts the block reward for miners in half. Today, on April 19th, 2024, that reward went from 6.25 BTC to a mere 3.125 BTC. But why is this such a big deal? How does a Bitcoin halving impact the cryptocurrency market as a whole? 

Let's dive deep and explore the fascinating world of Bitcoin scarcity, mining incentives, and potential price movements.

Understanding Bitcoin Halving: A Matter of Scarcity

Bitcoin, by design, has a finite supply. Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be created. This built-in scarcity is a core principle that differentiates Bitcoin from traditional fiat currencies with ever-increasing inflation. The halving mechanism acts as a control valve, gradually slowing down the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation.

The Role of Mining and Exchanges

Mining is verifying and adding new transactions to the Bitcoin blockchain. Miners use powerful computers to solve complex mathematical puzzles, and the first miner to crack the code gets rewarded with a set amount of Bitcoins – this was 6.25 BTC before the halving. With the halving, mining becomes slightly less profitable in terms of direct Bitcoin rewards. However, miners still earn transaction fees associated with each block they validate.

Impact on the Crypto Market: A Look at Supply and Demand

Now, let's explore the potential implications of the halving on the broader cryptocurrency market. Here's what we can expect:

• Reduced Supply: With fewer new Bitcoins entering circulation, the overall supply becomes tighter. This, in theory, could lead to an increase in the price of existing Bitcoins, driven by the basic principles of supply and demand.
• Increased Demand: The halving can also trigger increased investor interest due to the perceived scarcity. This can further amplify the potential price rise.
• Market Volatility: The halving is a highly anticipated event. In the lead-up and aftermath, the market might experience increased volatility as investors adjust their positions and react to price fluctuations.

A Word of Caution: Past Performance is not a Guarantee of Future Results

It's important to remember that past Bitcoin halvings have been followed by price increases. However, this is not a guaranteed outcome. The cryptocurrency market remains highly complex and influenced by various factors beyond the halving. These include:

• Regulations: Government regulations and policies can significantly impact the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• Adoption Rate: Widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a legitimate payment method can drive long-term price appreciation.
• Competition: The emergence of new cryptocurrencies with innovative features can challenge Bitcoin's dominance.

The Future of Bitcoin: Beyond the Halving

The Bitcoin halving is a significant event, but it's just one piece of the puzzle. The future of Bitcoin hinges on its ability to overcome the challenges mentioned above and continue evolving as a secure, decentralised digital currency. The halving might act as a catalyst, but sustained growth will depend on wider adoption, technological advancements within the blockchain ecosystem, and a supportive regulatory environment.

So, what should you do?

If you're interested in Bitcoin, the halving is an excellent opportunity to educate yourself further. Research the technology, understand the risks and potential rewards, and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Remember, the cryptocurrency market is dynamic and can be volatile. Always invest responsibly and only with what you can afford to lose.

Bitcoin exchanges like Coinbase or Binance can be a starting point for buying and selling Bitcoin. However, mining Bitcoin requires specialized hardware and significant computing power, making it less accessible to the average investor.

The Bitcoin halving is a fascinating event with the potential to shape the future of cryptocurrency. By understanding its implications and remaining informed, you can make informed decisions about your own investment journey in this ever-evolving digital landscape.

A Review into Which currency pairs benefited from financial crisis 2007-2008

The stock market has been rising in spite of the covid pandemic. Even before that, some well-known names were predicting a huge cruse with Peter Schiff republishing his same old book every year for some time now. Anyway, many of us agree, that there is something wrong with the markets and even more reputable managers predict a crash. It is, therefore, a good idea to look where the money tends to go should that happen.

Forex is a central point of the financial markets. Bonds, stocks, and commodities each is denominated in a currency. Buying the right asset from the right asset class is great. Buying it with the right currency is even greater ☺

One of the winners is clearly an American Dollar. I will leave it in all the following charts. After a long downtrend, the crisis put a halt to that and in 130 days, 860 days worth of losing the value was recovered . Of course, such rapid growth in currency value must have made exports difficult, so I assume there must have been some major intervention and the downtrend resumed after a beautiful double top .

(the chart below dollar is SP500 as another anchor for our analysis)

Then, there are two losers in this chart. It is important to mention two things. First, the charts present futures as the other indexes don't go as far. Second, a weak currency doesn't mean the country handled the crisis poorly. But as far as currencies go, AUD and EUR did perform rather poorly. // I think this is likely to be a repeated behaviour. AUD is still a commodity currency and EUR pegs diverse economies to each other. This raises a question about stability as successful currencies require political and economical union too. 

Oil currencies such as NOK or CAD seem to also have dropped. I added Oil chart at the bottom. // I do think that this is likely to repeat with NOK , but not necessarily with CAD. Although the CAD is another commodity currency, it is perceived as safer to some degree. At least as far as I know.
(could not find reliable NOK index) 

When it comes to currencies generally perceived as safe, Yen performed nicely and has risen more than 25% measuring from the lowest low between 2008 to the nearest significant top. The pair USDJPY was sideways-ish before the years 2007-2008 but is clearly downward-slope as Yen somewhat outperforms US Dollar . The same can't be said about the Swiss Franc which has only woken up after the dollar started to reverse. You can point out several weekly candles when the investors were rushing from the dollar and buying CHF in exchange in these times. // I think a Yen will express similar behavior. I am not sure what to make of CHF which is backed by gold more than other currencies and the gold has already risen quite high.


I will leave it here without further interpretation, but I am looking forward to discussion if there is one, and I will make a few more similar posts in the future if this one becomes any popular.