A Review into Which currency pairs benefited from financial crisis 2007-2008

The stock market has been rising in spite of the covid pandemic. Even before that, some well-known names were predicting a huge cruse with Peter Schiff republishing his same old book every year for some time now. Anyway, many of us agree, that there is something wrong with the markets and even more reputable managers predict a crash. It is, therefore, a good idea to look where the money tends to go should that happen.

Forex is a central point of the financial markets. Bonds, stocks, and commodities each is denominated in a currency. Buying the right asset from the right asset class is great. Buying it with the right currency is even greater ☺

One of the winners is clearly an American Dollar. I will leave it in all the following charts. After a long downtrend, the crisis put a halt to that and in 130 days, 860 days worth of losing the value was recovered . Of course, such rapid growth in currency value must have made exports difficult, so I assume there must have been some major intervention and the downtrend resumed after a beautiful double top .

(the chart below dollar is SP500 as another anchor for our analysis)

Then, there are two losers in this chart. It is important to mention two things. First, the charts present futures as the other indexes don't go as far. Second, a weak currency doesn't mean the country handled the crisis poorly. But as far as currencies go, AUD and EUR did perform rather poorly. // I think this is likely to be a repeated behaviour. AUD is still a commodity currency and EUR pegs diverse economies to each other. This raises a question about stability as successful currencies require political and economical union too. 

Oil currencies such as NOK or CAD seem to also have dropped. I added Oil chart at the bottom. // I do think that this is likely to repeat with NOK , but not necessarily with CAD. Although the CAD is another commodity currency, it is perceived as safer to some degree. At least as far as I know.
(could not find reliable NOK index) 

When it comes to currencies generally perceived as safe, Yen performed nicely and has risen more than 25% measuring from the lowest low between 2008 to the nearest significant top. The pair USDJPY was sideways-ish before the years 2007-2008 but is clearly downward-slope as Yen somewhat outperforms US Dollar . The same can't be said about the Swiss Franc which has only woken up after the dollar started to reverse. You can point out several weekly candles when the investors were rushing from the dollar and buying CHF in exchange in these times. // I think a Yen will express similar behavior. I am not sure what to make of CHF which is backed by gold more than other currencies and the gold has already risen quite high.


I will leave it here without further interpretation, but I am looking forward to discussion if there is one, and I will make a few more similar posts in the future if this one becomes any popular.

"Why is learning trading absolutely best gamble you can take" - from D. Man

 Why is learning trading absolutely best gamble you can take

Learning to trade is EXTREMELY hard.

It is like deciding to become a sport player, but to get paid only if you make it to the olympics. Flat out, 90% of traders in forex loose money.

I’d say about 80% in crypto lose money (less because of long time consistant macro-bullishness of crypto). Same, 90% lose in day-trading.

In a way, trading is like sex.

Everyone thinks they are good at it, yet rarely anyone knows what is doing.

Trading is a scalable zero sum game… meaning the only disadvantage a super-winning trader has compared to losers is when he gets big, he gets liquidity problems with time. It means that even if 10% of traders are profitable, only like top 2% make some real coin.

Yeah - 2%

Put yourself in a room, or imagine… of hundred people… only two are successful, yet everyone is loud like they know trading. 

The biggest trading myth - that you need money!

“but I need money to start trading”

It’s the most absurd, most WRONG, most wrong direction myth that could exist.

When I was learning at times I had good money, and I got it rekt by trading. At other times I had little money and with improved accuracy I was able to quickly restore account to the fullest.

The magnificent opportunity of leverage enables you that you never need anyone else’s money, or bigger money or anything… with small sizes you can do 100x… however, for such things you need to know really really really well market, you need to enter most often limit entry at the bottom (very challenging), and have balls to hold for ages.

To illustrate you a picture.

If in one period I did 20 times 50x win… in the same period I maybe 2-3 times succeeded at 100x. 100x is incredibly harder to achieve.

These are like my rules of thumb leverage levels: 18x and 40x. 40x is much better than 50x, and 18x I found much better than 20x. Don’t ask me why, I just had more luck with it..  I have an idea (20xers can get rekt and you still survive), but I admit it is biased.

So why is trading the best gamble you can take?

Because the worst case you sharpen your mind, your skills. You get feedback from the market and evolve as a human as it challenges your emotions, your brain, your desire, everything… at the same time, if… you win… you win financial freedom in a way that is completely free from: having to talk to people, having a boss, having to make deals with anyone, selling anything, asking a permission…

What would I recommend beginner traders?

• 1) Trade spot shitcoins - it’s easy, and big whales cannot play with you, cannot marketmake you (low liquidity), basically you’re experiencing REAL human vs human trading… I talk about coins that are after 200th position in marketcap… that have up to 200k per day volume. Then you progress slowly.
• 2) Then trade spot bigger coins that are having market maker; then try leveraging now not shitcoins, but bigger caps (as shitcaps are actually more manipulated), but not top 5 caps… as they are special way of manipulation (especially: btc, eth, xrp, link)
• 3) Bitcoin on leverage is the hardest thing you can do in crypto. You need it only if you have big wallet that presents liquidity problems with alts.

Listen to D Man, re-read the above. Choose your level carefully. Because sometimes a mediocre player can be winner if he surrounds himself with fish (bad player term in poker)… 

And sometimes a pro can lose if he surrounds himself with other pros. Start with 1, and slowly progress as you gain edge. Listen to D Man. Know yourself is more important thank knowing your enemy - Sun Tszu

Big NO in trading - mind alterers

People watched Wolf of Wallstreet and think they are cool if they do drugs in trading. That’s wrong. Maybe mediocre corporate traders that get paid to play with other people’s money do it… but top notch winner would never do it.

Here’s why: big part of trading is psychological. If you take something that artificially changes your psychology, you are basically punching yourself before the boxing match… you are putting your own psychology at disadvantage. You should as often as possible trade in the same or similar, known state of mind. And that is when you watch charts, when you sleep, when you wake up… you must know that state.

Similar like people that experience something drunk, don’t remember it, but when they get drunk again they can remember it… the same way, your experiences on chart work, you remember them best in same state of mind, and no matter how many drugs you do, your most frequent state of mind is your natural state of mind, that’s why if you want to reach the top of the game, you should limit away every influence possible including: coffee, energy drinks, drugs, alcohol… drugs include prescriptions too that you don’t need. Trader on tranquillisers… I have yet to see one making serious top of the world results on it. 

In short, don’t do it. 

If you do it, don’t trade.

Know thyself.

Myth 3 - you need expensive tools.

I trade with zero tools. Zero. Sometimes I use binance chart, on a small screen of laptop (admittedly, sometimes I lack a bit bigger screen to see the chart a bit further back, so I need to zoom in etc)… no indicators, no expensive tools, no nothing. And I tried em all! thousands of dollars newswire realtime subscriptions, expensive indicators, bigass tools, … you have everything you need for free. For news, real time news scanner on blockchainwhispers.com or at @fullfeed on Telegram. For charts, free Tradingview account would do. 

Nothing else is needed.

How to trade like D Man?

Similar to casino, on a roulette, there is like only 2% advantage to casino. Yet, casino most of the time ends up a winner. Why?

People make absurd mistakes.

Same with trading. There are countless of ways you can lose your portfolio without being wrong at all. Try just entering five times on high leverage a position at market and closing it… ie changing your mind, and see how expensive it is. Changing portfolio size that participates per trade is biggest mistake you can make as a beginner trader. Biggest. Like an invitation to get rekt.

So if you want to trade like a D Man, you need to focus at most important: avoiding mistakes. Not getting ‘rights’ but avoiding mistakes. 

Biggest psychological mistake in trading

— not understanding the statistical significance. If you don’t know what it is, Google is your friend. 

In a coin flip I can get 7 times in a row heads. It doesn’t mean I have a magic coin that hits heads all the time… for example, people recently tell me: “I know people who called short from 65k, and you didn’t!” - well good for them, however at any given time there are longs and shorts… 

It can easily happen for a wrong and stupid reason a guy thought it goes down, it dropped, he didn’t participate in trade later, so he didn’t follow responsibly enough, but he saw it dropping further post Elon’s announcement, then later he concluded: “I knew this move”. You knew my ass. A lucky and wrong top short, that you’d close 2-3k below, that connected to Elon’s announcement which you if you are at all honest with yourself couldn’t have predicted… then you say you knew about the short. 

I hired so many traders in search for one to bring you an extra edge. I learned to give them the 20 trades challenge. In 10 trades, you can see some traders getting epic performances, 9/10 or even 10/10… Yet by the time 20th trade is reached sometimes it all balances out.

Without 20 trades, I don’t want to hear about someone’s performance. 20 FAIR, 1:1 or better trades. Public. Transparent. Replicable.

I have years of trading back. So to noobs that ask “how can you say you are the most accurate trader when you didn’t short” the answer is: 

• 1) my PUBLIC track record 
• 2) I was the ONLY guy who got to hall of fame in then MOST LIQUID leverage exchange in 2020, BitMEX before it started asking for kyc and went to shit 
• 3) I wouldn’t have not the follow quantity, because people follow for various reason, but such incredible group buy power, if I didn’t enjoy trust of professionals and people who actually do their homework.

Blockchain Whispers by far more than any group has buy power. Heck, recently we even had bots problems, because people buy whatever I recommend, because they know, I never fuck with people’s trust, and I always do my best (risks always remain present!)

So when you try to assess yourself, don’t beat yourself for GOOD trades that went wrong (a big mistake) or to praise yourself for a gamble shot that went RIGHT.

People, if you have following, tend to suck your dick when you get them money, and hate you when you are losing… yet the most advanced ones are the ones who are consistently evenly grateful for the EDGE you provide them.

EDGE and discipline is all you need to make it in trading.

My friend, Blockchain Whispers brother, D Man believer… I hope I motivated you a bit, inspired you and focused you in the right direction… and that as a result, at least one person out of 250,000+ that follow me here across BCW channels will make his or hers dream come true. If it happens, and you remember me then, I’ll know, yes, this post was all worth it.

Blockchain Whispers baby!

D Man